UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA ANCHORAGE STRATEGIC PLANNING

EXTERNAL SCAN WEBSITE

Introduction

This site is a platform for analysis of external conditions impacting the University of Alaska Anchorage for use in Strategic Planning and other efforts. Each page contains analysis and interpretation of current information on a specific topic, background documentation, and a portal to data sources and other web sites for monitoring and updating the analysis.

Population

Alaska population growth of 14 % in the decade between 1990 and 2000 was slightly faster than the US as a whole, but it represented a slowdown from earlier decades. The median age of Alaskans increased by 3 years to 32.4, but Alaska remained one of the youngest states in the nation. The age distribution was influenced by the baby boomer generation which is more heavily represented in the Alaska population than in the US as a whole. The baby boomers swelled the ranks of the 40-55 population, while the number of young adults, aged 20-35 actually declined. Inmigration, which contributed to population growth in earlier decades, slowed, and this contributed to, but was not the sole cause of, the decline in the number of young adults. The children of the baby boomers were evident in a relative increase in the K-12 population. The population continued to concentrate in the Railbelt with slower growth in other parts of the state.

Population growth in the next 5 to 10 years should continue these patterns. We expect growth close to the national rate, continued ageing, and further concentration in the Railbelt. The children of the baby boomers, now 10-20, will swell the college age population and drive up the number of new entrants into the labor market. The baby boomers will swell the ranks of older adults, and their retirements will increase the demand for new workers. The 65+ population will continue to grow very rapidly.

Employment

About 44 thousand wage and salary jobs were added to the economy in the 1990's--a growth rate of about 1.5% annually. Job growth was concentrated in trade and services with a small net loss in jobs in traditional basic industries. Tourism, air cargo, and mining were the growing basic sectors, while timber, seafood, oil and gas, and federal government were flat or declining. Increasing federal transfers and a growing Permanent Fund Dividend accounted for a large portion of new purchasing power driving the economy. The majority of job growth was in urban Alaska.

Job growth will be strong in the next few years due to large federal transfers for construction and operations, oil development activities, population ageing, and possible commercialization of North Slope gas. Tourism and air cargo will continue to grow, and prospects for new mining and military activities are positive. Timber and seafood will continue to struggle in the face of globalization of the markets served by these industries. On the negative side will be the drag on the economy associated with solving the state fiscal gap problem. Whatever combination of methods is used to balance the state budget, the importance of state general fund spending on the economy will continue to decline. The mix of new jobs will continue to be primarily in services and trade.

Job growth will continue to be concentrated in urban Alaska, and within the Greater Anchorage market, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough will continue to capture a growing share of the new jobs in response to the rapid population growth expected in that area..

Labor Market

For the US as a whole occupations with the fastest growth in jobs over the next 10 years will be in certain computer, legal, and health related fields. Jobs in occupations requiring an associate degree or higher will increase 23%--accounting for 40 % of the growth in jobs. Jobs in occupations not requiring post secondary education will increase 12%--accounting for 60% of the growth in jobs. Because of lower turnover in jobs requiring higher skill levels, 27 % of the job openings expected in the next 10 years will require post secondary formal education.

The number of job openings will be greater than the number of jobs added to the economy due to retirements and people changing occupations. The aging of the baby boomers will swell the share of the labor force over 55 years of age which in turn will increase the rate of retirements towards the end of the decade. This will create additional job openings in those sectors with a relatively old work force.

The occupational mix of new jobs in Alaska should mirror that of the US although the share requiring a bachelors or associate degree will be less than the US average. The greatest increase in jobs is projected to be among retail sales, cashiers, registered nurses, general managers, and child care workers. The aging of the baby boomers will increase the number of job openings in future years, particularly in state and local government. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the young Alaskans just entering the labor market.

Income

Alaska per capita personal income, the most widely used measure of the economic health of the regional economy, has been above the national average since the 1970's but the gap has been narrowing and now Alaska is at parity with the US average. This is due to the downward trend in the annual payroll of the average Alaska worker. The jobs being added to the economy are relatively low wage compared to existing jobs. Anchorage has one of the highest per capita income levels in the state, primarily due to the high level of employment in the city and the mix of jobs favoring relatively high wage occupations. Other definitions of income are not as reliable indicators of the trend in personal or household income.

The personal tax burden on Alaskans is relatively light due to the absence of a state income tax. Furthermore the income distribution in Alaska is among the most equitable in the nation, partly due to the Permanent Fund Dividend. The poverty rate is one of the lowest in the nation.en above the national average. In as been trending downward relative to the national average

Public Finances

The state has been spending more each year than it collects in general fund revenues through much of the 1990's. The problem is expected to become more urgent as the demand for public services continues to increase with population and revenues from petroleum, which supply most general fund revenues, continue to decline. The revenue shortfall will continue to be filled with draws from the Constitutional Budget Reserves for a few years. After than some combination of budget cuts and revenue enhancements will be necessary to close what is estimated to be a $1 billion annual "fiscal gap".

Higher education funding faces a squeeze nationally as growth in demand (the children of the baby boomers expanding the college age population) runs up against deteriorating state and local government revenue generating capacity.

In Alaska public higher education is more dependent on state appropriations than in other states. Expenditures per student are high, but expenditures per capita are low.

Social Conditions

The population became more racially and ethnically diverse and less transient in the decade between 1990 and 2000. Alaska remains younger and more male than the US as a whole. A larger share of households have a child present than the US average and a smaller share of households contains a person aged 65 or more. Consequently the average household size is greater than the US average.

Nearly 16% of the poulation is Alaska Native and although only 7% of the Anchorage population is Native, Anchorage now has the largest concentration of Native Alaskans in the state. Although 75% of the US population is white, the comparable figure for Alaska is 69% and for Anchorage 72%. 21% of the Anchorage population is neither white nor Alaska Native.

Of the population greater than 5 years of age in 1990, 48% had moved to Alaska within the last 5 years, 23% has moved to Alaska more than 5 years previously, and 29% had been born in Alaska. The share of the population moving in or out of the state each year has been falling so now about 7 percent of the population "turns over" in a typical year.

Alaska ranks at the bottom in retention of college aged students and charitable giving as a share of cash income, but high in educational attainment. Alaska is high in work related deaths and suicides. Voter participation is above the US average.

Technology

Information on the use of high tech services by consumers and others as well as information about high tech business activity is somewhat spotty and should be interpreted cautiously. Generally Alaska appears to be a leader in terms of use of the computer and the internet but not yet out of the starting gate in terms of high tech business activity.

 
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