• The contribution of caribou to community sustainability depends on the availability of caribou and on hunters’ time, skills, and money. The availability of caribou in turn depends on their numbers and their distribution with respect to communities. We are using data from Porcupine caribou outfitted with satellite collars to understand how migration patterns vary from year to year. An example of relevant distribution patterns appears in the figure below:

SUMMER TEMPERATURE:

• Porcupine Caribou Herd - normally the insect season is from 1 July - 8 August with mosquitoes being the prime harasser early and bot flies and warbles later on. Mosquitoes are active at lower temperature than bot flies so slight increases in summer temperature may have more of an effect on bot and warble flies (positive for them). Normal activity on coastal plain in the early insect season is for cow/calf groups to feed inland following phenology at times of low temperatures and/or high winds. As harassment increases they most often head to the coast occupying the coastal strip or at times they can move to foothills to stand on ridges.. The large aggregations that are maintained by insect harassment are constantly on the move. With development on 1002 we assume that access to the coast will be disrupted with the result that more groups will seek refuge inland in foothills and Brooks range. By mid July the large aggregations move into Canada occupying the Muskeg Basin and then split, with groups moving to the southern Brooks Range north of Arctic Village and some groups moving east to the northern Richardsons. By early August these groups disband scattering east and west north of tree line.
• Kaktovik: - normally hunt the herd from coastal fish camps. In bad insect years the animals are more accessible as they stay close to the coast. Thus the trend to increasing summer temperature will mean more hunting opportunities for Kaktovik. Ironically with development of 1002 animals will be less accessible as they will seek refuge from insects inland. If variability of summer temperature means years of relatively few insects then the PCH will be less accessible to the community, as the herd will move out of ANWR early following phenological changes in vegetation.
• Aklavik: normally hunt in July along the Yukon coast (modest harvest) and in August/September after her has disbanded from insect relief areas in Richardson mountains and disperse into the eastern Richardsons adjacent the Mackenzie Delta. As the herd doesn’t seek relief in Canada along the coast (compared to ANWR). Early breakup of groups (ie less insects) will increase accessibility of herd to August/Sept. hunting. Bad insect years decrease accessibility to Aklavik. Development of 1002 will mean fewer animals moving into Canada during early July (as they will move through he Brooks Range closer to Arctic Village) and thus fewer animals being accessible from Aklavik.
• Arctic Village - Arctic Village harvests the herd as early as late July and August. A bad insect year will result in groups being accessible to Arctic Village earlier and , if the herd uses the southern Brooks during warble/bot season, will mean more animals will be available after the groups break up. As well 1002 development will result in a greater proportion of the herd using the Brooks during early insect season which should mean a greater proportion of the herd will use the southern Brooks in late insect season.
• Old Crow - Old Crow can harvest the herd in early August if groups disperse during a good insect year. Thus bad insect years will be bad for Old Crow and good years will be positive.
• Ft. MacPherson - Similar to Old Crow although less likely to be affected because their early harvest tends to be more sporadic animals moving south but turning back north if they have penetrated that deep into their winter range.

SNOW WINTER:

• PCH - Deeper winter snow may imply earlier fall storms which would result in earlier fall migration and more rapid migration. As well, winter distribution would be more frequent in the snow shadow areas and less in the deeper snow regions. Thus Richardson Mtns, Ogilvie Peel basin and Arctic Village region would get higher use and the Old Crow basin and Eagle Plains get less use. Deep snow in the spring will result in delayed spring migration and more rapid migration.
• Kaktovik: Deep winter snow would have a neutral effect on harvesting opportunities by Kaktovik.
• Aklavik: Aklavik will harvest animals near their community in the winter and, primarily bulls during late spring migration. The northern Richardsons tend to be used in cycles (10 year?) with the Ogilvie/Hart region although distributions drifting north to Aklavik tends to be in shallower snow years.
• Arctic Village: The PCH tends to winter more frequently in Alaska in deeper snow year. On average therefore Arctic Village will have more access to the herd in deep snow years.
• Old Crow: Early rapid fall migration and delayed spring migration would both be negative in terms of access to the herd for Old Crow. The timing of spring migration in relation to breakup is important to the is community. In many cases most of the herd can cross if communication and monitoring along the River is poor. Deep snow winter result in few animals close to the village throughout the winter.
• Ft. MacPherson: This community is quite mobile and harvest in deep snow years can easily occur in the Richardson or the Ogilvie/Hart wintering areas. The community can however access the herd for a longer time throughout the winter if they are occupying the Eagle Plains region.

EARLY SPRING MELT

• PCH - Early snow melt will result in early spring migration. If this movement coincides with early spring breakup of rivers than higher mortalities will probably occur. The pregnant cows should reach the calving grounds earlier and tend to calve further north on the coastal plain. Use of Canadian calving areas will be less frequent, use of 1002 more frequent. Melting of deeper snow packs will mean movements will be more confined and focused on ridge tops rather than valley bottoms.
• Kaktovik - Kaktovik will benefit from earlier arrival of calving animals and further north distribution of the core calving area and the increased frequency of use of 1002. Most of these benefits will be offset by development of 1002 and displacement of caribou from the zones of activity.
• Aklavik - The effects of earlier snow melt will probably have little effect on Aklavik as they usually harvest bulls in the spring during late migration. If anything the earlier snowmelt should simply effect the timing of the movement.
• Arctic Village - earlier snowmelt and thus earlier spring migration will be negative for Arctic Village as animals will not be around as long.
• Old Crow - Early rapid spring movements result in lower harvests in Old Cow especially if the movement is associated with river breakup. The pattern of snow melt is important to Old Crow. In some years early spring melt south of the Porcupine River will move animals north early only to dam up south of the river until conditions north of the Porcupine improve.
• Ft. MacPherson - Much of Ft MacPherson harvest occurs from migrating caribou in the spring with the major harvesting area being the west side of the Richardsons on the Dempster Highway. If the spring migration is early and rapid I would assume harvest would be on average lower or at least harvesting activities more intense.

SUMMARY OF HYPOTHESIZED EFFECTS

1. Incorporate converted SPANS digital data representing "Movements and Distributions of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, 1970-1990, in the project GIS database (note that the conversion itself will be performed by the Alaska Data Visualization and Analysis Lab at UAF’s Geophysical Institute).
2. Collect and display harvest data from Native organizations which represent Arctic Village and Old Crow.
3. Perform integrated analysis (ArcView; Spatial Analyst) of annual caribou migration patterns versus seasonal caribou harvest.
4. Provide base map support for project team.
5. Develop of a general land ownership and management layer (local communities, federal parks, state/provincial areas, native organizations, "jurisdictions").
6. Connect with researchers who are creating the predictive models for future caribou herd populations to ascertain how trends derived from the GIS data (i.e. from the Spatial Analyst modeling phase of caribou migration vs. harvest areas) might impact their models.
7. Design an output system so that communities and project team members can produce report-size maps of custom analyses performed during an ArcView session. We should organize all of the components (e.g., themes, shape files, and grids) so users can access them.
8. Disseminate the ArcView 3.0 database including documentation and use policies to ASC, ADF&G, NSB, and the ARCSS data archive.
9. Develop GIS database management procedures so that researchers can both send and receive digital updates.